Sunday, September 25, 2016

4 Inconvenient Predictions about Election 2016



1. Trump will Win the Debates and Lose the Voters

This is probably the most obvious prediction but it needs to be stated. The man known for his outlandish outbursts will be unlikely to contain himself when standing against Hillary Clinton on the debate stage. Taking a page from Romney vs Obama's first debate, Trump will go for blood. He will try to establish dominance over his female opponent in order to feed the fetish of his fanatical followers. The news media will declare him the winner but the polls will swing heavily against him as Hillary picks up the sympathy/rationality vote.


2. Gary Johnson will reach 15% but still won't be allowed in the debates

Get ready for voter rage. Libertarian Gary Johnson has been defying expectation by climbing in the polls instead of fading as most third party candidates do when it gets closer to November. His petition for the debate commission exceeded 1 million signatures and he has reached double digits in almost every state poll. He represents the hopes of millions of Americans who want another choice and yet, this is when the commission will suddenly get really strict about who is allowed to speak. They will deny him that chance. The two major parties have a history of dirty tricks against third parties but this is the first time all Americans will see it.


3. Hackers will present an October Surprise

Hackers have made some waves in this election cycle but they are far from done. I believe they are saving the best for last. These hackers (Who are probably not Russian or partisan) appear to be dedicated to exposing hypocrisy and revealing the truth. So, what is the one piece of information everyone wants but no one can seem to get their hands on? Trump's financial statements seem like a good target. This would be especially interesting if, as some suspect, Trump is exaggerating his wealth and hiding business dealings with international criminals or even individuals on the terrorist watch list.


4. Hillary will win a One Sided Election

With Trump on the ropes because of the October Surprise and with Johnson blocked from the debate stage, all things will roll in Hillary's favor. Even if those things don't happen you have to consider that she has the backing of more than 80% of her party, she has consistently led in the national polls and she is favored on the electoral map. Trump has a much weaker grasp on his party, he fumbles terribly in the demographics battle and he has almost no ground game for voter turn out. It is quite possible that we have seen all of Trumps cards and his entire campaign is something of an illusion. When it comes right down to it independent voters will always choose the person less likely to sink the ship.