One thing that has been clear during this entire election cycle is that you can't trust the media or the polls. We know this because there has been more misinformation, manipulation and even fake news stories than ever before. The polls, which are supposed to measure long term trends, have been erratic and flawed focusing on short term emotional reactions to individual news stories. It's no wonder that Americans are confused as to what is really going on.
I have made predictions in the past about Hillary winning and the most common reaction came from people who said, "I'll listen to the experts." I agree, you should listen to the experts but actually listen to them don't just assume that they are right because of their job title or specialty. For example millions of people visit FiveThirtyEight.com to follow the aggregate map of genius pollster Nate Silver. Nate and his team have done a fantastic job in the past by collecting all of the credible polls and weighting them together. However, Nate himself is constantly warning people that even his average can be tilted off balance. In fact some are calling 538's model an outlier because it sits apart from the other five forecasts. Whether they are overly cautious or right on the money won't be known until election night.
I might be just another voice in the wind but here are my data points for your consideration.
* Hillary is Winning with Women: 72.8% of eligible female voters are registered this year and their rage is overwhelmingly against Trump. Only 69.1% of eligible men are registered and their vote is split. Women will decide this election.
* Hillary has a Larger Base: 85% (roughly) of registered Republicans are backing Trump. The same percent are backing Hillary among Democrats but here is the kicker - There are more Democrats. Among registered voters 26% are Republican, 29% are Democrats.
* Hillary benefits from Early Voting: Traditionally Republicans come out early to vote but this year the numbers are close to equal in several important states. This means that Democrats are motivated more so than in years past. If my guess is right, we won't be waiting late into the night for a result on Election day. Read the current numbers state by state.
* Hillary gets the Secret Vote: Trump has suggested that he would benefit from people who secretly want him in office but the truth appears otherwise. Voters (Many of them Republicans) are so nervous about Trump's temperament that they more more likely to keep silent and make their voice known only in the booth.
* Hillary gets the Latino Vote: This could make a big difference in three swing states - Florida, Nevada and Arizona. Latinos are very unhappy with Trump, both his words and his policies. 67% of Latinos favor Clinton and appear to be coming out in record numbers.
* Hillary embraces Economic Stability: While this might not appeal to some voters, it appeals heavily to the stock market. Many people vote with their wallets and don't want to see long term investments crash under the weight of instability. In the last few days the market has been sinking due to a tightening of the polls and the possibility of a Trump Presidency.
* Hillary wins the Big Question: Every Presidential election over the past fifty years has been decided by one question - Which of these candidates is least likely to sink the ship? Trump's negatives are astronomical for a candidate at this level at 63% unfavorable. His personality has been described as Narcissistic, Egotistical and even Psychopathic. Americans might be squeamish about Hillary but they are outright terrified of Trump.
Keep in mind, I'm not cherry picking because I'm not a partisan. I voted for Gary Johnson. For many citizens it has been easy to get lost in shuffle this time around. No one group will tip it. All of these factors together will decide who becomes the next President of the United States. By most relevant and measurable statistics it looks like we'll witness the rolling surge of a Hillary tidal wave on Nov 8th.
